Jacob Is Alvar's Alias...

One of Season 3's big mysteries has become the identity of Jacob, author of Jacob's List and presumably the "magnificent man" who originally brought many of the Others, including Mikhail, to the Island. Many interesting possibilities have been posed -- I've speculated that He might be Jack in some kind of grandfather paradox. But I realized recently that there's another much simpler scenario than time travel -- one that promises to unite the show and Lost Experience. What if Jacob is actually an alias for Alvar Hanso himself?



Many of us -- myself included -- assumed for some time that the Others were the remains of Dharma, and it's instructive to recall why. Back in Season 2, when Tom was still the bearded Mr. Friendly, he quoted "somebody a whole lot smarter than anybody here" as saying "since the dawn of our species man's been blessed with curiosity." That quote, of course, was attributed to Alvar Hanso on his Foundation's website, leading a lot of us to conclude that Mr. Friendly was a former disciple of Hanso.



It appears the foregoing was a big red herring, but appearances can deceive. Aliases, after all, are practically a theme of the show. Consider how many characters have been known by more than one name: Henry Gale/Benjamin Linus, Drs. Marvin Candle/Mark Wickmund, Sawyer/James Ford, and Kate/Maggie/Joan/Annie/Monica are the obvious examples. I believe that list of aliases will eventually grow to include Alvar/Jacob, as well. But why on earth would Hanso go to all the trouble of using different names?



One possibility is that our Magnificent Man actually had two related but distinct projects in progress on the Island. There was the Dharma Initiative devoted to influencing the core factors of the Valenzetti Equation. The Other project was a hedge on Dharma's failure. Under the alias Jacob, Hanso began recruiting exceptional people for what a poster named todell calls the Human Stash. If and when the rest of humanity was extinguished, these exceptional people would go forth and rebuild a new and better world in their own exceptional image.

Another possibility, which I'll revisit in its own thread, is that the Dharma scientists caused some calamity, necessitating counter-measures. Let's say the Island is located outside of space and time -- a kind of Panoptichron from which the past and future can be observed and changed. Perhaps, in attempting to alter humanity's fate, Dharma accidentally damaged multiple timelines, setting off a chain reaction (i.e., the Incident). Hanso recruited special individuals capable of transcending time and space as "time agents" to repair the damage.



Then there are the possibilities that take us literally and figuratively through the looking glass. What if Alvar has a whole other personality just like Hurley -- one named Jacob? Or what if Alvar has a "bad twin" named Jacob from a mirror dimension -- one with apocalyptic ambitions? I've always wondered why Alvar lacked a mustache in the photo from the Swan Orientation. Okay, that last possibility is admittedly absurd and doesn't even technically involve an alias, but I'm a sucker for mirror Spock scenarios...



However it happened, the result was two groups working side by side on the same Island, each with no knowledge of the other. Things went swimmingly until they inadvertently made contact. Through a series of misunderstandings, the two groups grew hostile. Perhaps the Others kidnapped one of the scientists, prompting the latter to retaliate by killing an Other. The conflict quickly escalated, and when Hanso tried to intervene, he was banished from the Island, possibly in the AH/MDG Incident.



With him went the truth and any hope of peaceful resolution...

Cause and Effect

Part I: The Andromeda Paradox
Okay, science and philosophy fans, this one's for you. There's been a lot of discussion recently about Desmond's strange trip to the past and apparent ability to see the future. I believe that both are signs he has become a living causal paradox -- one that highlights some startling aspects of special and general relativity, and raises interesting problems of time and free will. To understand, let's begin with Desmond's namesake, Mr. David Hume.



Hume was an empiricist and believed that we can only know what experience tells us. One of his great philosophical contributions was the notion that causation is really nothing more than our observation of the conjunction of two events. We see A followed by B enough times and infer that there must be a necessary connection between them -- i.e., A causes B. Hume argued that this inference was faulty no matter how often A is followed by B. Constant conjunction is not synonymous with necessary connection.

Hume's claim is pretty wild when you think about it. He basically argued that there's no reason beyond our own experience to think the sun will rise tomorrow. This argument was a punch in the mouth to metaphysics, and spurred a number of convoluted attempts (e.g., by Kant) to preserve some notion of causality that preceded experience. I won't bore you with the details -- suffice it to say that this argument is very important to the history of philosophy but less so for our purposes.



Fast forward to Albert Einstein, whose special theory of relativity radically reshaped our conception of time. One key aspect of the theory is the relativity of simultaneity. If events A and B are separated in space (i.e., not causally related) people in relative motion (e.g., walking and standing still) won't agree whether A and B happened simultaneously, or A was followed by B. This lack of absolute simultaneity, which is a function of the speed of light being constant, has some pretty freaky consequences.

In four-dimensional spacetime, your "present" is the three-dimensional universe comprised of the unique set of events at the intersection of your past and future light cones -- i.e., your plane of simultaneity. When people move at different relative velocities to another, they have different planes of simultaneity and thus different sets of "present" events. At any given moment, in other words, your 3-D universe differs in content from the 3-D universes of people moving around you. Some of their future events are in your present, and vice versa.



This yields what theoretical physicist Sir Roger Penrose terms the Andromeda Paradox. To paraphrase: Desmond, who happens to be walking in the direction of the Andromeda galaxy, passes Charlie singing Oasis on the street. As a result, events in the Andromeda for Des (e.g., the launch of an invading space fleet) will be ahead of those same events in time for Oasis Charlie -- possibly by hours, days, or even weeks. In Charlie's "present," the Andromadeans may still be deciding whether to launch!

This disparity makes no difference to either man because the events in question are too far away to affect them (i.e., outside the causal boundaries set by their light cones). It does, however, raise some difficult questions for free will. As Sir Roger asks: "If to either person the decision has already been made, then surely there cannot be any uncertainty. The launching of the space fleet is an inevitability." And if that launching is predetermined -- in Charlie's universe at least -- how can the Andromadeans' decision to do so truly be free?



Things get even weirder if we posit some way for Charlie and Desmond to affect events in the Andromeda. Pretend there's a method of communication (e.g., subspace radio) that allows instantaneous contact across the universe. An Andromadean warns Des that the invasion fleet has launched. Des walks back to warn Oasis Charlie, who then contacts the Andromadean generals. Charlie's crooning soothes the savage beasts, and he persuades them not to launch the fleet. As a result, free will is preserved at the cost of causal paradox...

It's improbable but theoretically possible that a similar phenomenon explains Desmond's limited precognition on the Island. Desmond witnesses Charlie's death and contacts A, who is light years away. A tells B, whose plane of simultaneity is such that Charlie has not yet died. B contacts Desmond just in time to avert Charlie's death. The main problem with this scenario (aside from the identities of A and B) is that special relativity forbids the transmission of information at speeds faster than the speed of light.

That doesn't preclude the existence of hypothetical particles that are already moving faster than light. Tachyons, for example, are a Star Trek staple, and were used in Watchmen to interfere with Dr. Manhattan's ability to see the future. There's also quantum entanglement, whereby two particles can affect each other instantaneously -- what Einstein called "spooky action at a distance." Our best bet, however, is probably conventional communication via shortcuts through spacetime (e.g., wormholes).



For that latter possibility, however, we need to introduce Einstein's general theory of relativity, so this is probably a good place to break.

Part II: The Chronology Protection Agency
Einstein's theory of general relativity throws a fresh curve in the causation mix. Special relativity treats spacetime as uniformly flat, but general relativity posits that mass literally warps the geometry of spacetime. This contrast raises the intriguing possibility of circumventing light's speed limit by exploiting these warped geometries. The trick is to find something sufficiently massive to wrinkle spacetime in the required way. Luckily, the implosion of Swan Station supplies the perfect fudge along these lines.



Say Swan was in the process of imploding into a small black hole, warping spacetime around the Island. Activation of the Fail-Safe caused the black hole to evaporate, releasing a blast of hypothetical Hawking radiation that punched a wormhole in spacetime. Theoretically, someone could send information through the wormhole at sub-light speed, allowing Desmond to change Charlie's immediate future. And here's where the brain-frying really begins -- it's also paradoxically possible that Desmond can alter his own history via the warp and wormhole.

To see why, recall the light cone we used to illustrate the relativity of simultaneity. In special relativity, where spacetime is flat, Desmond's future light cone is always pointed away from his past. In general relativity, however, the curvature of spacetime can theoretically cause his future light cone to tip. If it tips far enough, Desmond's future light cone can intersect with his past, creating a closed timelike curve. Somehow, Des exploited such warped spacetime geometry to project himself mentally into the past, leaving an imprint of his future self behind.



This obviously creates the potential for massive paradox. Since Des only went back a few years, he couldn't cause the (grand)mother of all paradoxes by killing a parent or grandparent. As we saw, however, his residual memory of the future almost made him to propose to Penny, which paradoxically would mean he never went to the Island to turn the Fail-Safe key. Indeed, Desmond's mere hesitation has already altered the timeline to create small paradoxes. As others have noted, Penny kept a copy of their last photograph the "first time" around.

At this point, you may be wondering whether the very paradoxical character of these causation scenarios renders them impossible by definition. Remember, however, what Hume said about causation -- it's always an empirical question. There's no reason to rule out causal paradoxes independent of experience. This leads most physicists to speculate that the universe operates somehow to prevent or otherwise correct for such paradoxes. One famous speculation in this regard is Stephen Hawking's Chronology Protection Conjecture.

Hawking's conjecture is that the laws of physics are such that backwards time travel can only take place at microscopic scales, thereby preventing causal paradox. He uses the metaphor of a Chronology Protection Agency, "which prevents the appearance of closed timelike curves and so makes the universe safe for historians." An alternative approach is the Novikov Self Consistency Principle, which permits backwards time travel at the macroscopic level, but posits that the universe self-corrects against any alterations to the past that would yield causal paradoxes.



If this all sounds familiar, it should. The Jeweler (appropriately named Ms. Hawking) played the role of Chronology Protection Agent, preaching something similar to the Self-Consistency Principle. As she said to Desmond: "The universe, unfortunately, has a way of course correcting." Des is part of a closed timelike curve caused by his activation of the Fail Safe. If he chooses not to go to the Island, the result will be major causal paradox, triggering a catastrophic course correction that restores consistency by destroying the world -- we all die.

It may even be that Des can now mentally project himself at will through space-time. The clue is the red shoes in his flashback, which are an obvious reference to the ruby slippers in the Wizard of Oz. As Glinda the good witch says to Dorothy at the end of that story: "You've always had the power to go back to Kansas." When asked why she didn't tell Dorothy sooner, Glinda replies: "She wouldn't have believed me. She had to learn it for herself." Despite his helpless pleas to "please let me go back," I suspect Des already has this power-- he needs to learn to believe in himself.



And that brings me to my closing speculation, which is that the Others are a kind of Chronology Protection Agency ("CPA") fighting against creation of causal paradox. They use the Island as a quarantine zone where living sources of such paradox can be confined and taught (brainwashed?) to control their abilities. Perhaps Juliet was "recruited," at least in part, to prevent her from creating paradoxes that require catastrophic course corrections. She's being held as long as it takes to conquer her demons and indoctrinate her into the CPA Code.

Maybe then Juliet can, if she chooses, return to the world working as a CPA Agent. This work might include recruiting others like her, much as she was recruited by Ethan and Alpert. It may also involve intervening to prevent causal paradox (and thus course correction) like Ms. Hawking did in Desmond's flashback. The latter task could even entail shifting back and forth between different parts of the timeline to be in the right place at the right time. Only fools, after all, are enslaved by time and space...

The Jeweler

One of the burning questions raised by Flashes Before Your Eyes is the identity of the elderly jeweler who lectured Desmond on the ways of fate. I actually think Des told us: she's a projection of his subconscious not unlike Dave.

I'm not referring to the Smokey manifestation of the latter -- I mean Hurley's imaginary friend from the mental hospital who wanted to eat tacos. Dave was the voice of Hurley's subconscious, including his appetites.

Notice how the jeweler played on all of Desmond's doubts about himself, echoing his subconscious feelings of unworthiness (e.g., "that's the only great thing you'll ever do"). Consider as well her claim that "we'll all die" if Des doesn't go to the Island. Mirrors his preoccupation of the past three years -- saving the world.

When Des accused her of being a figment of his subconscious, she didn't deny it, asking simply "Am I?" Shortly thereafter, she abruptly disappeared from his life -- just like Dave did from Hurley's. I'm guessing as well that Dave first appeared after Hurley's traumatic experience with the deck.

I'd say the implosion of Swan was a pretty traumatic event for Des...

You Make Your Own Luck...

Part I: No One's That Lucky
Remember what Martha Toomey said to Hurley when he claimed the Numbers were bad luck? "You make your own luck, Mr. Reyes. Don't blame it on the damn Numbers." At the time, I dismissed Martha as a raving skeptic, and she may well be that. But I've come to believe her line is among the most important on the show. Some of our Losties (e.g., Walt, Hurley, Jack, Des, and likely more) can literally make their own luck -- good and bad.



By that I mean they can (sometimes, somehow) influence probabilities to make what they visualize a reality. That's how Walt made the polar bear attack, how Hurley (and for that matter Sam) won the lottery, how Jack healed Sarah, and how Desmond got his boat -- all against steep odds. It also explains how so many people survived a catastrophic plane crash with mere scrapes. As Sayid said to Kate: "No one's that lucky."



Ironically, Sayid is wrong -- many of them (himself included) have already demonstrated themselves to be exceptionally lucky. Hurley and Walt are two of the most important characters in this regard, which is why each has key scenes in Season 1. Among the most telling is this one from "All the Best Cowboys..." wherein the two compete head to head at backgammmon:

WALT: Need a 4-3. [Walt then takes forever to roll]

HURLEY: Dude, would you please roll?

WALT [rolling a 4-3]: Yes.

HURLEY: No.

WALT: It's okay, I wasn't very good when I first started playing, either.

HURLEY: I didn't just start playing. I took 17th in a tournament once.

WALT: 17th is not very good.

HURLEY: No, 17 is very good.

WALT: C'mon double 6's, double 6's. [he rolls double 6's] Yeah.

HURLEY: Aw, you've got to be kidding me,

WALT: I'm lucky.

HURLEY: No one is that lucky.

WALT: My dad said I was the luckiest person he ever knew.

HURLEY: Really?

WALT: Not Michael, Brian. My other dad. Yeah, um. . . [he rolls again and wins]. Yes! Yes! C'mon, one more game, double or nothing. (Transcript courtesy of lost-tv. )

This exchange is illuminating not just because it establishes both characters as unnaturally lucky. It also sheds light on why Walt is so special -- his power to make luck surpasses even Hurley's. But luck can be both good and bad, which is why Walt and Hurley each have had no shortage of both. Think of the death of Walt's mother from a freak blood disorder, or his capture by the Others (only to be released in another improbable turn of events).

No character, however, illustrates this duality of "making your own luck" better than Hurley. After winning the lottery (itself an improbable event) he becomes certain he will experience bad luck, which is precisely what happens. But it isn't the Numbers so much as Hurley's fear (combined with his power to make luck) that renders their curse a reality. Martha Toomey was right -- his belief in bad luck is a self-fulfilling prophecy.



If Hurley is a paradigmatic character, his paradigmatic scene has to be the mad dash to the airport at the end of S1. There we repeatedly see Hurley's power to affect probability for better and worse at war with itself. The improbable occurrences of the Numbers throughout the sequence simply confirm that Hurley's preoccupation with their "curse" drives the effect. His multiple personalities symbolize this internal conflict between light and dark impulses.

Jack and Desmond are less powerful individually, but when they meet improbably just before Jack performs surgery, the Doctor gets supercharged by the encounter. This lets Jack to deliver on his fierce promise to fix Sarah despite overwhelming odds to the contrary. But that's not to say Jack is inept at manipulating the odds by himself -- he completely dominated Sawyer at poker and I suspect the latter is no slouch at making his own luck.



That brings me to Desmond, whom we met in the Season 2 premiere to the strains of sweet Mama Cass's aptly titled "Make Your Own Kind of Music." I'm guessing it wasn't a coincidence that Des conveniently encountered Libby right when he desperately needed a boat. And now that he apparently has displayed precognitive powers, ask yourself this: Does Des see the future, help make it happen, or a little of both?



Finally, consider the possibility that the Island somehow attracts people with this special power to affect probability. That may be how Flight 815 and the Drug Plane, which took off on opposite sides of the earth, both crashed in the same place despite the utter improbability of that occurrence. That may also be why Benjamin Linus suspected there would be survivors despite Flight 815's obviously catastrophic impact. And those missing hairbrushes? Just Claire's bad luck...

Thus far I've stuck pretty much to events on the show, but Part II delves a bit into the Lost Experience. So if you can't stand TLE heat, now might be the time to get out of the kitchen...

Part II: The Fountain of Evolution*
Dharma began as straightforward scientific experiments aimed at influencing the core factors of the Valenzetti Equation. But shortly after the experiments began, there was an Incident. Scientists studying the Island's electromagnetic fluctuations accidentally unleashed an ancient energy source, causing strange effects worldwide. As a result, people across the planet began developing special powers, including the ability to make their own luck.



The energy that Dharma unwittingly released was the legacy of the Fourtoes' disastrous attempts long ago to harness some exotic plasma as a power source (catch a falling star?). The Fourtoes lost control of their "fallen star" causing a larger version of the Swan implosion (Le Crater?) and/or a volcanic eruption that buried them like Mt. Vesuvius did Pompeii. Hence Sawyer's otherwise cryptic reference to Vesuvius in S2E11.



This eruption sealed the Fourtoes' mistake underground like a natural version of the concrete dome that covers Chernobyl's radioactive core. The Island's ecosystem was contaminated, and the energy trapped within generated a massive magnetic anomaly. But both effects were localized, at least until Dharma cracked the natural containment vessel like Charlie did the hornet's nest in S1E6, releasing a blast of energy worldwide.



As the "fallout" from this first Incident spread, some of those exposed were transformed at the quantum level, gaining special powers like hyper-empathy and the ability to affect the future. One loose analogy is to the Fantastic Four, whose own special talents resulted from exposure to unspecified "cosmic rays." Another is to the legendary Achilles, who is described in Dan Simmons' novels Ilium and Olympos as a freak of quantum probability:

"I see a quantum singularity," says the goddess Nyx. "A black hole of probability. A myriad of equations all with the same single three-point solution. Why is that, Artificer?"

The god of fire grunts again. "His mother, Thetis of the seaweed tangled breasts, held this arrogant mortal in the celestial quantum fire when he was a pup, little more than a larva. The probability of his death day, hour, minute, and method is one hundred percent, and because it cannot be changed, it seems to give Achilles a sort of invulnerability to all other attacks and injury." (From Olympos.)

Note the reference to being bathed in the "celestial quantum fire" which is a good metaphor for exposure to the Island's exotic energy (the Flame?). Those exposed to fallout from this celestial quantum flame can affect probability and link minds. Believing they had found the fountain of evolution, Dharma hatched a new plan to mass produce and aggregate the power to make luck in hopes of altering the Valenzetti's grim prophecy.

First, however, Dharma had to plug the Island's leak. The powerful electromagnet in Swan generated a magnetic shield around the plasma that surged up periodically through the breach like a geyser. The analogy here is to the Earth's magnetosphere, which protects our planet from solar radiation and flares. The difference is that the planetary magnetosphere keeps solar radiation out, while the Swan shield kept the Island's energy contained.

Plasma discharge akin to a solar flare may well be what turned the sky purple after activation of the fail-safe. I suspect there were three levels to this discharge. Pushing the button on time triggered a controlled release that was entirely local. Pushing it late (i.e., System Failure) caused a larger burst with local effects that were detectable globally. Activation of the fail-safe blasted the contaminated plasma worldwide (i.e., another global Incident).

Why not automate the discharge? The device also served as a deadman's switch -- Dharma figured the implosion of Swan would destroy the other stations and Island itself. They either didn't realize or care that it might actually swallow the world, which seemed dangerously close to happening before Desmond turned the key. I'm guessing the ultimate result would have been either a black hole or a magnetospheric eternally collapsing object (MECO).



Dharma also failed to appreciate the powerful psychic forces they'd tapped. After the first Incident, the stations were redesigned as an intermental network that harnessed subjects' collective power to affect fate. Swan served as a cocoon where occupants developed into masters of probability. That power was then collected and reflected intermentally to other stations via hyper-empathic subjects in Pearl.

But isolation on the Island proved stressful, and test subjects were selected mainly for psychic ability not mental stability. In Lord of the Flies fashion, their collective fears and anxieties exploded in a fresh series of Incidents, including animal revolts and the "catastrophic Cerberus malfunction." Like Hurley's curse or the Id Monster from Forbidden Planet, the subjects' own subconscious demons were entirely responsible for the effect.



Many died or fled the chaos until one man (a great man!) restored order using his hyper-empathic abilities to control and compartmentalize the remaining survivors' dark impulses (i.e., their bad twins). I'm guessing that great man was Benjamin Linus, a powerful psychic who was born on the Island then supercharged by the original Incident years before. I've argued previously that he's analogous to the Mule from Asimov's Foundation series.



By submitting to Ben's iron will, the survivors regained control of their bad twins, and thus the animals and Smokey. But those with a talent for the improbable continued to find the Island bringing their mental baggage with them. This created a vicious cycle as new arrivals subconsciously attracted more people. Even a great man like Ben isn't totally immune to such temptations -- his desire for a spinal surgeon did indeed help draw Jack to the Island.

The Others, most of whom are survivors of various crashes themselves, took to categorizing new arrivals. Good people (i.e., those amenable to empathic coercion) were incorporated into the community. Questionable people (e.g., Desmond and Kelvin) were quarantined in stations like Swan, where their abilities were suppressed with vaccine. Bad people (e.g., Nathan) were killed either by the Others or Smokey before their "bad twins" caused problems.

Like Whitney Houston, the Others believe the children are their future. The younger the child, the easier he or she is to indoctrinate, which is why the Nigerian warlords and Others originally preferred Yemi and Aaron, respectively. Young children are also less tainted by the stresses and appetites of modern society -- little noble savages of sorts. The kids are taught to control their talents and raised apart from Otherville (free-range kids?) until they can.



So what happens now that Swan imploded? For one thing, the Island's "fallout" will again spur psychic evolution worldwide, drawing other exceptionally (un)lucky people to the Island. I suspect, moreover, that Dharma's backers (Paik, Widmore, the U.S. military, etc.) have long wondered what happened to their investment. Look for those interests to conspire over the Island now that its anomaly has again been detected. As in Walt's comic, I fear activation of the fail-safe may also serve as a summons...



*PART II WAS REVISED ON JANUARY 16, 2007 -- THE ORIGINAL IS AVAILABLE IN THE POST BELOW OR BY CLICKING HERE.

You Make Your Own Luck -- Part II (Original)

Part II: The Incidents and Aftermath

THIS IS THE ORIGINAL VERSION OF PART II -- THE REVISED VERSION IS AVAILABLE IN THE POST ABOVE OR BY CLICKING HERE

Dharma began as straightforward scientific experiments aimed at influencing the core factors of the Valenzetti Equation. But shortly after the experiments began, there was an Incident. Scientists studying the Island's electromagnetic fluctuations accidentally unleashed an ancient energy source, causing strange effects worldwide. As a result of this Incident, people across the planet began developing special powers, including the ability to make their own luck.



The energy that Dharma released was contamination left from the Fourtoes' disastrous attempts millenia ago to harness a small magnetic star (catch a falling star?) for tesseracting. They lost control of the experiment causing a larger version of the Swan implosion -- maybe even Le Crater. The analogy is to Paris Crater, a massive implosion caused by ill-fated French time travel experiments using black hole technology, in Dan Simmons' books Ilium and Olympos.



The Fourtoes' catastrophe wrinkled spacetime around the Island, which is why it's accessible from points across the planet. Anyone exposed to the Island's energy contamination is transformed at the quantum level, exhibiting special powers like hyper-empathy and the ability to affect the future. The latter talent is loosely analogous to the legendary Achilles who is described in Simmons' novels as a freak of quantum probability:

"I see a quantum singularity," says the goddess Nyx. "A black hole of probability. A myriad of equations all with the same single three-point solution. Why is that, Artificer?"

The god of fire grunts again. "His mother, Thetis of the seaweed tangled breasts, held this arrogant mortal in the celestial quantum fire when he was a pup, little more than a larva. The probability of his death day, hour, minute, and method is one hundred percent, and because it cannot be changed, it seems to give Achilles a sort of invulnerability to all other attacks and injury." (From Olympos.)

Note the reference to being bathed in the "celestial quantum fire" which is a good metaphor for exposure to the Island's energy (the Flame?). Instead of becoming invulnerable, however, those exposed to the quantum "flame" can affect probability and link minds. This realization inspired a new plan by Hanso and Dharma to mass produce and aggregate the power to control luck in hopes of altering the Valenzetti's grim prophecy.

Before that could happen, however, the energy contamination had to be contained on the Island. The device behind the concrete wall in Swan was an electromagnetic accelerator that channeled some of this energy into a sort of stasis bubble. The analogy here is to wormhole stabilizers from Dan Simmons' universe, though Swan's device had the reverse effect of plugging Island portals that leaked its effects worldwide:

“The posts were obsessed with time travel. Those thousands of big accelerators produced thousands of tiny wormholes, which they tweaked into stable wormholes—those were the swirling masses you saw at the end of most of the accelerators.”

“And the giant mirrors?” said Harman.

“Casimir Effect,” said Savi, “reflecting negative energy into the wormholes to keep them from imploding into black holes. If the wormholes were stable, the posts could have traveled through them to any place in space-time where they could position the other end of the wormhole.” (From Ilium.)

Note that last part about preventing wormholes from "imploding into black holes." Swan Station seemed dangerously close to doing just that before activation of the fail-safe. Like many, I suspect the electromagnetic device and countdown also served as a deadman's switch. Dharma figured that the bubble's implosion would destroy the stations and Island itself -- they didn't realize (or perhaps care) that it might also end the world.



Dharma similarly failed to consider how isolating the Island in spacetime would affect test subjects. After the first Incident, the stations were redesigned as an intermental network that harnessed subjects' collective power to affect fate. Swan served as a cocoon where occupants developed into masters of probability. That power was then collected and reflected intermentally to other stations via hyper-empathic subjects in Pearl.

But life on the Island was lonely, and test subjects were selected for psychic ability not mental stability. Separating these subjects from the natural timeline just added to the stress of physical isolation on the Island. In Lord of the Flies fashion, their collective fears and anxieties exploded in a fresh series of Incidents, including animal revolts and the "catastrophic Cerberus malfunction," like Hurley's curse or the Id Monster from Forbidden Planet.



Many died or fled the chaos until one man (a great man!) restored order using his hyper-empathic abilities to control and compartmentalize the remaining survivors' dark impulses (i.e., their bad twins). I'm guessing that great man was Benjamin Linus, who may have been "reborn" as a powerful psychic in the original Incident years before. I've argued previously that he's analogous to the Mule from Asimov's Foundation and Empire.



By submitting to Ben's iron will, the survivors regained control of the animals and Smokey. But folks with a talent for the improbable continued to find the Island bringing all of their mental baggage. This created a vicious cycle as these arrivals used their own abilities to subconsciously attract more people. Even the Others aren't totally immune to such temptations -- Ben's desire for a spinal surgeon did indeed help bring Jack.

The Others began categorizing new arrivals. Good people (i.e., those able to restrain their bad twins) are incorporated into the community, as are children who can easily be indoctrinated. Questionable people (e.g., Desmond and Kelvin) are quarantined in stations like Swan, where their abilities are suppressed with vaccine. Bad people (e.g., Nathan) are killed either by the Others or Smokey before their "bad twins" can cause problems.

So what happens now that Swan imploded? For one thing, the Island's contamination will again spread worldwide, spurring more psychic evolution and possibly the apocalypse. I suspect, moreover, that Dharma's funders (e.g., Paik, Widmore, the U.S. military, etc.) have long wondered what happened to their investment. Look for those interests to begin conspiring over the Island in Illuminatus fashion now that it's part of our spacetime again...

Pearl and the Power of Empathy

In the Island Is the Brain of the World, I analogized the Island to a natural neural network that integrates inhabitants' minds with each other and the environment. In 2001: A Lost Odyssey, I expanded on this concept, introducing the notion of an intermental network wherein brains are linked to harness their collective computing power to solve a problem like the Valenzetti Equation.

I now believe I've worked out a possible pseudo-scientific account of how the aforementioned mental linkage and networking is accomplished. The keys are observation (purportedly Karen Degroot's pet value) and empathy (my own personal favorite).

An Anthropologist on Mars



I've been fascinated by the power of empathy ever since I read Oliver Sacks's collection of case studies An Anthropologist on Mars about people with autism and related disorders. The title is actually a self-description by Temple Grandin, a famous high-functioning autistic who teaches livestock behavior at Colorado State University.



By her own admission, Dr. Grandin lacks any instinctive ability to read the emotional states of people around her -- a feat most of us take for granted. She's had to learn to do so through careful study of rules (e.g., smile=happy) like an anthropologist might prepare for a close encounter with Martians whose nonverbal emotional cues differ from our own.

What's really interesting about Dr. Grandin is that, despite her difficulties empathizing with humans, she has no problem doing so with animals. In fact, she's devoted her career to designing more humane livestock holding and slaughter facilities. I remember a light bulb going off when I read that: feeling the pain of others is really the key to decency...usually.



Mirror, Mirror
It turns out that the neurological basis of empathy is a hot topic in scientific circles these days. Interest was first sparked by the discovery in monkey brains of specialized neurons devoted to imitation and mimicry. Subsequent research, including brain scans of people interacting with each other, suggests that we possess these so-called "mirror" neurons, too.

The apparent purpose of mirror neurons is to mimic the neurological states of those we observe. Writing before the explosion of research into these neurons, the noted neuroscientist V.S. Ramachandran described their discovery as "the single-most important 'unreported' (or at least unpublicized) stories of the decade." As Dr. Ramachandran explained:

With knowledge of these [mirror"> neurons, you have the basis for understanding a host of very enigmatic aspects of the human mind: "mind reading" empathy, imitation learning, and even the evolution of language. Anytime you watch someone else doing something (or even starting to do something), the corresponding mirror neuron might fire in your brain, thereby allowing you to "read" and understand another's intentions, and thus to develop a sophisticated "theory of other minds." (Full text here.)

Scientists like Dr. Ramnachandran hypothesize that the loss of mirror neurons might explain autistic disorders, which are characterized by lack of empathy. And Pseudo-scientists claim such neurons could explain psychic powers. A character on the NBC show Heroes with the ability to mimic the powers of mutants around him is described as "hyper empathic."



Every Breath You Take...
All of which brings me back to the purpose of Pearl Station, which I'm assuming is the "?" on the Blast Door Map. The Pearl Orientation film informs viewers that the station's purpose is to monitor the psychological experiment in Swan. Yet the pile of unread logs strongly suggests this explanation was a ruse.



Other clues point to some other purpose. We know, for example, that Karen DeGroot preached: "Careful observation is the only key to true and complete awareness." And the Blast Door Map bears the mysterious Latin inscription "Credo nos in fluctu eodem esse," which translates to "I think we're on the same wavelength."



I believe the real function of Pearl was to facilitate mental linkage between its occupants and the Swan subjects. The hope was that careful observation would activate mirror neurons (i.e., empathy) coordinating the neurological states of those stations' occupants. Eventually, everyone in the network would get on the same mental "wavelength."

Pearl's central location suggests it was a nexus of some Island-wide network. The odd part is that Pearl's Orientation only mentions watching Swan, implying the link is just between those two stations. But Pearl is only 5 of 6, and the camera therein suggests some other station (and observers) could have completed the intermental network.

The Power of Empathy
In prior posts, I've cited the strange encounter between Kate and the unconscious Sawyer as the best illustration (besides the whispers) of mental linkage at work. Viewed through the lens of empathy and mirror neurons, the example makes even more sense. To review, Kate is nursing a feverish Sawyer in Swan while haunted by memories of Wayne.

All of Kate's attention and affection are focused on Sawyer, placing her mind on the same wavelength as his. She transmits dark thoughts of daddy to Sawyer, who transmits back a kiss, which is how he'd comfort her if conscious. But because they don't realize what's happening, their minds get crossed like the Flash and Green Lantern in Walt's comic.

As a result, Sawyer starts talking like Wayne and Kate plants a wet one on Jack (also an object of Kate's affection) who then runs off to chop wood like Sawyer. As Hurley says to Jack shortly thereafter: "It's like, transference."



Another example of this effect is the unusually strong connection between Rose and Bernard. Recall that she was sure Bernard had survived the crash -- the result of her receiving signals from his mind? A similar dynamic might even explain the significance of Desmond and Penelope's relationship -- their thoughts are on the same wavelength.

That latter possibility of long distance transmission and reception off the Island raises intriguing possibilities. The premise of my theory 108: Restoring the Lost Sun was that the Island's non-metallic minerals (e.g., quartz?) made it a kind of natural transceiver. Maybe Dharma's ultimate goal was a worldwide intermental network.

I'll explore such a scenario further in a revised version of that theory. The relevant question here is why Dharma failed. If the Island is still so successful at linking minds, why do the Numbers remain unchanged? What could possibly have gone wrong? The "sickness" (which I believe refers to this linking effect) is a big clue.



Neither orientation film mentions the quarantine or vaccine because they came after Dharma's official end. My suspicion is that the Initiative worked all too well. The Island not only linked the original participants' minds, it actually created an emergent species capable of transitioning between individual and collective consciousness at will.

The problem is that members of this newly evolved species have lost much of their empathy for humanity at large. For some reason, they view the majority of their former species as "bad people." And while it's still not entirely clear whether that's a reference to character or some other trait, the connotation of inferiority is unmistakable.

If that seems farfetched, think back to the example of Dr. Grandin. Her ability to empathize across species is exceptional and rare. Most people view other species the way she does "neurotypical" individuals -- with empathy that is learned. Against that backdrop, Tom's comment about Kate not being "his type" takes on a whole new meaning...

Ben Is the Mule...

...and I don't just mean he's stubborn.

This speculation is actually an outgrowth of thoughts I posted to Suffer the Children and the Mind of Magnus. As noted previously, Isaac Asimov's Foundation series describes a hyper-empathic mutant (the Mule) whose special mental abilities disrupt a centuries-old mathematical prophecy reminiscent of the Valenzetti Equation.



I'm struck by parallels between Ben's experience as "Henry Gale" and the plot line of Foundation and Empire, the second novel in the series. The similarities are such that I have a hard time believing it's mere coincidence, though we all know what Mr. Eko (RIP) might say to that...

WARNING: MAJOR PLOT SPOILERS FOR ISAAC ASIMOV'S FOUNDATION AND EMPIRE.

In the novel, a husband and wife are sent on a mission to learn more about the Mule, a mysterious conqueror whose empire is expanding at an alarming rate. After unsuccessfully seeking an audience with the Mule, the couple stumbles instead on his court jester, Magnifico Giganticus, who has apparently escaped from the palace.

Since Magnifico is one of only a few to have seen the Mule in person, they rescue and return with him to their ship for questioning. Magnifico charms them with his antics and chills them with descriptions of the Mule's strength and vindictiveness. After hearing from another source that the Mule is a powerful mutant, the couple flees with Magnifico to friendly space.

Shortly thereafter, however, they learn the Mule has targeted their territory for conquest. As the attacking forces advance, Magnifico becomes terrified that the Mule is coming for him:

The clown shrank in horror. His eyes were glassy.
"The Mule," he shrieked. "The Mule is coming for me."
He thrashed wildly at her touch.

They flee the invasion only to learn a terrible truth -- Magnifico is actually the Mule pretending to be a meek clown. He allowed himself to be captured to spy on his enemies and manipulate them from within using mental telepathy. That reminds me a lot of Ben's capture and mind games, right down to the line about "His" brilliance and cruelty:

Because the man in charge -- he's a great man, John, a brilliant man -- but he's not a forgiving man. He'll kill me because I failed, John. I failed my mission.

Compare that line with this description by Magnifico of the Mule:

He is a man of overpowering might, respected sir, and cruel in the use of his power -- and his eyes, respected sir, no one sees.

Note the emphasis on the Mule's eyes, which Magnifico claims have the power to kill. Eyes are obviously a huge theme on Lost, and the Eye of the Island (i.e., Smokey) has apparently killed more than once. The Mule also reportedly wears glasses:

He wears spectacles, respected sir, of a curious nature. It is said that they are opaque and that he sees by a powerful magic that far transcends human powers. I have heard,” and his voice was small and mysterious, “that to see his eyes is to see death; that he kills with his eyes, respected sir.

Ben's eyes are among the most intense and expressive on the show (thanks, Juniebun) and I can't help thinking of one of my favorite shots of him staring intently at the Hyrda monitors through big round specs.



So is Ben just an expert con, or does he have some special ability to sense and manipulate emotions like the Mule/Magnifico? There are at least two reasons to think it's actually the latter. First, this may again be coincidence but I note that Dave appears to Hurley on the Island during Ben's imprisonment in Swan.

Second, the name Mule is a reference to sterility caused by his mutation. Could it be yet another coincidence that Juliet just happens to be a fertility doctor? Doubtful -- I suspect Ben has wanted a child for some time. My guess is that he raised Alex as his own, which is why he asked about her right before going under the knife.



Perhaps their relationship soured when she learned the truth about her kidnapping, which is why she helped Claire and Aaron. Maybe Ben wanted another child and brought Juliet to the Island in hopes of curing his condition. She subjected him to a battery of tests and X-rays, which is when Ben learned about his tumor...



So what say you now, Mr. Eko, coincidence or something more?

The Mind of Magnus

PART I: THE MYSTERIOUS MAGNUS HANSO
One of the most intriguing yet least-analyzed mysteries of Lost is the identity of Magnus Hanso. The Blast Door Map suggests that his body rests near the Black Rock, which disappeared near the end of the 19th century with Hanso at the helm. Beyond that, however, the man remains a riddle, leading many to discount his relevance to current Island events.

I think this is a mistake. At the very least, Magnus is the Milo Rambaldi of our tale of the Black Rock. As such, it makes sense to speculate a bit about his background and possible connection to what's happening. For starters, I believe that Magnus Hanso was a powerful psychic, alchemist, and matrilineal descendant of none other than Albertus Magnus.

Magnus and the DeGroots



To review, Albertus was a brilliant religious scholar who lived during the thirteenth century and was a major influence on Thomas Aquinas. The name "Magnus" wasn't an honorific but rather a literal translation of his family name, DeGroot (thanks, cinamin). Albertus was also reputed to have been an accomplished alchemist and powerful psychic.

Suposedly, Albertus succeeded in creating the philosopher's stone, which he used to construct an automaton with a soul (Smokey?). Albertus also wrote of a mysterious island located in the "western ocean" (thanks, jmberger) and described a magical black rock that could only be mined from the head of a freshly slain dragon (erupting volcano?).

My guess is that Magnus, who may have been illegitimate, was so named to indicate his kinship with the DeGroots. He used his powers to become a successful sea and businessman, not to mention slaver. His participation in the slave trade long after it became stigmatized as the "peculiar institution" is telling -- Magnus embraced kidnapping and forced labor.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn he was a fan of Mr. Herbert Spencer's Social Statics and the Rev. Thomas Malthus's Essay on the Principles of Population, both of which advocated draconian measures to deal with the problems of poverty and overpopulation. I also expect that Magnus was obsessed with the Book of Revelation's description of the apocalypse.

The Island's Significance and Location
Like many navigators of his day, Hanso undoubtedly dreamed of finding safer and swifter passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Without airplanes or the Panama Canal, traders faced long and perilous journeys around South America or Africa. Finding superior east-west passage was the key to more than just money -- it promised to make the Magnus a legend.

I believe that Hanso found such passage by tracking the mysterious island described by his psychic ancestor Albertus. That Island, whether by freak of nature or ancient science, is accessible on both sides of the planet. In pseudo-scientific terms, it's situated on a wrinkle in timespace or vile vortex connecting the South Pacific with the South Atlantic.

Crazy as it seems, this is the most plausible explanation I can think of that accounts for anomalies like the Nigerian drug plane's presence and the daylight discrepancy of Flight 815 that others have previously noted. There may be other entrances (e.g. at the north and south poles) but these are the primary two. The South Pacific portal is at 4.815, 162.342.



The antipode of that location (i.e., -4.815, -17.658) happens to be located in the South Atlantic along a possible flight path from Nigeria to South America, where the drug plane may have been headed with the heroin. It's a stretch (a Beechcraft 18 can't make the trip from Nigeria to South America without refueling) but it makes more sense than the South Pacific.



Tales of the Black Rock
How did Hanso end up on the Island? He presumably set out on his fateful trip with plans to establish a settlement and explore for mineral resources. As the experiences of Danielle and Desmond attest, however, the surrounding seas tend to be stormy due to the Island's electromagnetic fluctuations, which may also wreak havoc on navigational instruments.

A particularly fierce tempest deposited the Black Rock inland. Magnus survived the wild ride but the skeletons in the hold suggest his crew did not. His story thus loosely resembles that of another sole survivor of a shipwreck in Tales of the Black Freighter, the fictitous horror comic that's read by a black child named Bernard throughout the graphic novel Watchmen.

Short story shorter, Tales of the Black Freighter tells of a sailor who washes ashore on a deserted island after ghost pirates wreck his ship. Convinced the pirates are headed to massacre his village, the sailor fashions a raft from the corpses of his crew. He races home but ends up mistakenly committing the very slaughter he strived so hard to prevent.



While not required, the full story (not to mention Watchmen) is a great read. You can access the story at this site, though all Watchmen imagery has been removed (i.e., many panels are now empty but for text bubbles). Even so, it's a creepy tale well worth checking out, especially if you like pirates. Arrrrr!

Hanso's Haunted Island
Like his graphic novel counterpart (and for that matter Danielle) Magnus went mad from his marooning. At the same time, his psychic abilities blossomed as he learned to channel the Island's energies. Eventually, Hanso attained control over the Island, which literally became an extension of his powerful mind. In his madness, Magnus became convinced he was the demiurge.

The Island extended Hanso's life but his body eventually aged beyond any capability to sustain it. By then, however, his mind had literally imprinted itself on the Island, much like the earth's magnetic field leaves its mark on cooling volcanic rock. When Hanso's body withered away, a virtual copy of his consciousness remained, recorded like a natural EEG of his mind.



The analogy here is to hauntings, which some speculate are electromagnetic recordings that get replayed to -- and sometimes through -- living people sensitive enough to perceive them (thanks, clayseason and andylekker). This is the premise of Turn of the Screw, wherein the ghosts of two lovers replay their doomed affair through two receptive children.



Channeling the Mind of Magnus
I suspect, moreover, that the Island's exotic non-metallic minerals make it a kind of psychic transceiver. The radio tower and automated transmission, whatever their literal plot significance, are metaphors for this phenomenon. Just as the tower once transmitted the Numbers, the Island broadcasts a recording of the Mind of Magnus to receptive brains worldwide.

This brings me back to the Alias comparison. Certain characters on JJ's previous work were capable of channeling the consciousness of Milo Rambaldi, a fictitious 15th century psychic and inventor who attained anachronistic knowledge of "automatism, life extension, protein engineering, mathematics, cryptography and cartography." Sound familiar?



Rambaldi hid his most powerful inventions but left behind clues to their locations. One was an equation whose solution yielded the coordinates of longitude and latitude where Rambaldi's consciousness was stored (the Sphere of Life). I doubt it's a coincidence that the core numerical factors of the Valenzetti Equation coincide with plausible coordinates for the Island.

My guess is that Valenzetti was himself channeling the Mind of Magnus when he formulated his famous Equation. Maybe Enzo was mentally ill (e.g., autistic or schizophrenic) which seems to facilitate reception. Another possibility is some shared mutation that predisposed him genetically to pick up the Island's psychic signal. However it happened, he wasn't the only one.

Be sure to check out Part II wherein I relate the story of Adam and Eve, and reveal the true purpose of Dharma, and Part III where I discuss some possible (but by no means necessary) implications of this theory.

PART II: UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
The Story of Adam and Eve
Throughout the 1960s, a number of people across planet began receiving psychic transmissions from the Mind of Magnus. Among the first was "Adam," who may have been related to both Hanso and Albertus. Adam's connection to the Mind manifested initially as a preoccupation with neo-Malthusian theories like those described on my Catastrophe thread.

As the connection strengthened, Adam was plagued by nightmares of the apocalypse and strange coincidences involving the Numbers. He and his wife "Eve" struggled to grasp what afflicted him. Eventually, their curiosity and concern, coupled with Adam's fear that the end of the world was imminent, drove the family to the South Pacific at the coordinates of the Numbers.



Thus did Adam and Eve arrive in Eden. Sadly, if they survived their trip, they were dead by the time Alvar Hanso found the Island himself several years later. The lone remaining survivor was Adam and Eve's child -- now a young teen -- who had lived his entire life on the Island and learned to harness its energies with his mind like Magnus before him.



The result was a cross between Charlie X and that creepy kid with powers on the Twilight Zone. Sensing the boy's potential, Hanso adopted him as a ward, but raised him on the Island to study its effects. Alvar also indoctrinated the boy in values of scientific curiosity and service to humanity. The analogy here is to another Alan Moore creation, Tom Strong:

Tom Strong, the title character, is a "science hero." He was raised in a high-gravity chamber and given an intensive education by his somewhat eccentric mad scientist father, on the fictional West Indian island of Attabar Teru. His upbringing, plus ingesting a root used by the natives of the island for health and long life, have made him nearly physically and mentally perfect. Though born at the dawn of the 20th century, he only appears to be in his forties as of the year 2000. (Full text here.)

The Birth of Dharma
Hanso's studies suggested that his ward's metamorphosis could be replicated in others through exposure to the Island. He planned a grand experiment in human evolution that would become the Dharma Initiative. But how to convince people to trade everything for life on a remote Island? And how to ensure that their newly developed powers would be used for the greater good?

Hanso's solution was to exploit Valenzetti's chilling mathematical prediction linking the Numbers with the apocalypse. Hanso knew very well that the reclusive mathematician had actually been channeling the Mind of Magnus. But Alvar shrewdly recognized that the myth of the Numbers was guaranteed to grab the attention of even the most selfish among us.

The victims of this noble lie were the original Dharma recruits. It's no coincidence their assigned tasks were pointless. Again, the Initiative's real goal was to spur subjects' psychic evolution through exposure to the Island. The Hatches merely provided a controlled environment for this process, a cocoon where the metamorphosis into moths could take place.



And it worked -- concerned scientists and test subjects flocked to Dharma in hopes of averting disaster. For a time, all was golden as participants toiled in ignorance at their stations. In his hubris, Hanso presumed he could keep his elaborate deception a secret. He failed to consider that (surprise, surprise) secrets are hard to keep from evolving psychics.

The test subjects discovered the truth and tattled to the scientists. Together, they staged a revolt, seizing control of Smokey and expelling Hanso from the Island. Afterwards, some returned to civilization, while Others remained behind to build a Baconian New Atlantis. But demystification of the Numbers and the end of Dharma had a host of unforeseen consequences.

Karma Police
For one thing, former Dharma participants began to reproduce. The mutation caused by exposure to the Island's energies got passed down to their offspring. A new generation was born like Adam -- connected to the Mind of Magnus even though they'd never visited Island. Some of them had children of their own who proved even more adept at channeling the Mind.

Equally problematic, without the noble lie to constrain them, people were tempted to use their powers selfishly. I suspect that Locke's father, Cooper, was a former Dharma test subject. But even if his special talent for conning people was the result of natural mutation, his self-serving conduct underscores the dilemma created by demystification of the Numbers.



Free will and moral character are leitmotifs of Lost. The references to concepts like Tabula Rasa (the "blank slate") and Karma ("It'll come back around...") underscore that we are the authors of our souls, free to make the choices that define us as good or bad twins. The cost of that freedom, however, becomes prohibitive when bad people gain special powers.

That's why the Others' dual obsessions are "goodness" and children. Without the Numbers, moral character is all that stands against the rising tide of chaos. And like the Nigerian warlords who took Mr. Eko as a child, the Others realize that indoctrination works most effectively on the young. This was the factor that Hanso failed to consider in designing Dharma.

The Initiative's fatal flaw was that the adult test subjects had mostly defined their moral character by the time they joined Dharma, necessitating the noble lie. The catastrophic irony is that revelation of the deception started a chain reaction that now threatens to cause the very apocalypse the Initiative was supposedly commissioned to avert.

Sickness and Quarantine
Meanwhile, the Mind of Magnus continues to draw people to the Island like moths to the Flame. Sometimes, they arrive alone like Kelvin or Desmond. Other times, they come en masse as in the case of the French scientists and Flight 815. Initially, the Others were unprepared for such arrivals -- Danielle's crew no doubt caught them completely off guard.

They seized the baby Alex believing she could be integrated into their utopian community. But they were divided over how to deal with the adults, who soon began to transform. Some felt the French should be given the chance to prove they were good people, while others were adamant that they should be terminated before the transformation was complete.

Believing her crew to be sick, Danielle killed them all, solving the immediate problem. But the Others were determined not to repeat the terrible experience. Suspicious that the Numbers broadcast had attracted the French scientists, the Others let Danielle change the radio transmission. They also established procedures for dealing with any future trespassers.

It was decided that new arrivals would be quarantined in Swan Station and duped into performing the duties of its original occupants. Swan represented one of the few controlled environments left on the Island, a place where occupants could be vaccinated against the Island's transformative effects and spied on via hidden camera to judge whether they were "good" people.



Besides, someone had to push the button, which still maintained the Island's electromagnetic cloak. Why entrust such a critical responsibility to outsiders? First, the task itself kept them occupied, providing a sense of purpose ("Just saving the world..."). Second, the 108-minute countdown kept them close to Swan, as far away from Otherville as possible.

System Failure
This system worked fine for solo arrivals. Occasionally, some unlucky Henry Gale would come knocking when Swan had no vacancies and be quietly killed. The crash of Flight 815, however, represented a new crisis. The majority of Others had no stomach for a massacre, and with dozens of survivors in at least two locations, quarantining them all in Swan Station was impossible.

So a new plan was formulated on the fly. Smokey led Jack to the Caves, where Adam and Eve had originally set up camp and later been laid to rest. The hope was that shelter and fresh water would curb the urge to explore the Island. But events like Ethan's unmasking, Locke's discovery of the Hatch, and Claire's escape from the Staff, quickly dashed that optimism.

Our Losties have advanced further and faster than expected. And the old debate over how to handle outsiders has exposed more basic conflicts lurking beneath Otherville's placid veneer. Though everyone pays lip service to free will and morality, some resort more readily to murder and manipulation in service of the perceived good, much to the dismay of others.

With casualties mounting, and revenge clouding hearts and minds, Otherville has increasingly become a house divided against itself...

PART III: RELATED SPECULATIONS
*Ben is the child of Adam and Eve. A lifetime of channeling the Mind of Magnus has left its imprint on Ben, making him increasingly draconian. Like Magnus before him, Ben has developed a disturbing taste for manipulation, kidnapping, and forced labor. The tumor on his spine is thus a metaphor for larger the cancer on his soul.

*Juliet is a relatively recent arrival to the Island. Her vocation of fertility doctor suggests she was not a part of the original Dharma Initiative, which focused on adults. More likely, she crashed on the Island or was brought there subsequently to deal with a problem of sterility among some hybrid offspring of evolved and ordinary humans.

*Alcatraz or Ellis Island? Flight 815's arrival exposed the shortcomings of the Others' present quarantine system. In hopes of avoiding future problems, and as a means of alleviating the current crisis, the Others have begun constructing a new and larger quarantine facility on Alcatraz islet. That's what Kate and Sawyer were helping to build.

*Jacob is Patchy. Remember the guy with the eye patch whom we glimpsed in the Pearl monitors? That's Jacob, whose original mission was to observe occupants of Swan Station like Kelvin and Desmond to gauge their goodness. Now he's charged with making a list (and checking it twice) of the naughty and nice among our Losties -- i.e., Jacob's List.

*Smokey can channel the Mind of Magnus. The Others believe they control Smokey, and for the most part they do. But Smokey is a modern application of ancient alchemical knowledge, and likely composed of the same exotic medium that maintains the Magnus Hanso's consciousness. The system may thus have brought our Losties to the Island, much like Locke suspects.