At the excellent suggestion of Wayne Allen Sallee, I'm devoting a separate post to the mystery of who shoots at Sawyer, Locke, Faraday, Charlotte, Miles, and Juliet in the outrigger canoe. The shooting takes place as the group is flashing through time. After one such flash, they find themselves at their old beach camp some time after the crash of Ajira 316. The six (hmmm...) spy a pair of outrigger canoes, one of which Ilana's crew presumably used to get from Hydra to the main Island.
The Lefties take one of the canoes and begin rowing toward the Orchid. They soon realize they're being chased by unknown parties in the other canoe who shoot at them. Juliet returns fire, hitting one of the pursuers, but the Lefties flash through time before they learn who was chasing them. And that raises one last point before discussing some possible suspects. The shooting probably takes place after the encounter at the Foot because none of the participants has a gunshot wound.
Suspect: The Others
This is probably the most mundane explanation. Still, it's easy to forget that the Others have ample reason to be hostile toward the Lefties. Think of how many Others have died at the hands of the survivors of Oceanic 815 and the Kahana. Ethan, Colleen, Danny, Tom...the list goes on. I wouldn't be surprised if the Others specifically targeted Juliet as retribution for her shooting of Danny. Estimated Likelihood: 25%.
Suspect: Ilana's Group
This strikes me as the most plausible solution. I've previously suggested that this exchange of fire represents the first shots in "Charlie Widmore's War." The conflict will be between the Others, who follow Zombie Locke as their leader, and Ilana's Group, which knows he's really the Man in Black reincarnated. At some point, Ilana's Group will spy the Lefties absconding in a canoe and take chase thinking it's Locke and the Others. Under this view, the pursuers target Locke to avenge Jacob's murder. Estimated Likelihood:
Suspect: Survivors of Ajira 316
This is the least likely scenario. I can't fathom why other survivors of Ajira 316 would shoot at the Outrigger 6 -- or where they would even get guns. But the survivors find three canoes on Hydra Island so basic math suggests it's a possibility. Frank and Sun take one, followed by Locke and Ben in another, both docking by the Barracks. Frank returns in a canoe, at which point there are two on Hydra. Ilana's Group only takes one, so it's possible that other survivors of Ajira 316 follow them in the second canoe. Estimated Likelihood: 1%.
Suspect: Our Losties
Motive: Change the Past
This is another unlikely scenario but one with undeniable whackadoo appeal. Since we can reasonably assume the shooting has yet to occur, it may take place after our Losties flash back from 1977. It's possible, therefore, that they're shooting at themselves in hopes of somehow disrupting the time loop they've just experienced. Again, it's all pretty unlikely. As you all everybody have noted, however, the irony of Juliet wounding her beloved Sawyer while he tries to save her life would be very LOST. Estimated Likelihood: 10%.
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